I’ve Watched All 50 Oscar-nominated Films: Who Will Win?
President Daryl Cheong lists his predictions for the 97th Academy Awards.
This year’s Oscars Award Ceremony is shaping up to be an unexpected one. We’ve got multiple deserving winners in some categories, and also underwhelming nominees that fail to elude the passion of years past. Tomorrow’s results might be as unpredictable as they come.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: Civil War
One of the few places where Denis Villeneuve’s awe-inspiring work can be recognised, Dune: Part Two is all but guaranteed to win.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Kneecap
Conclave’s brilliant editing delivered tricks that kept the film engaging but introspective, although Kneecap’s editing should also have been recognised for its vitality and youthfulness.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Wicked
Should Have Been Here: Maria
There’s a lot of love for Wicked, and the costumes in the film were phenomenal, fun, and aided in enhancing the story and characters. No one else stands a chance.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: The Substance
Could Win: Nosferatu
Should Win: A Different Man
Should Have Been Here: The Apprentice
If there’s love in the Academy for The Substance, this will be where it shines. However, Nosferatu’s surprising nominations across four categories might signal potential adoration for the film that may triumph here.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
Could Win: Greig Fraser (Dune: Part Two)
Should Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
Should Have Been Here: Jomo Fray (Nickel Boys)
For a film about architecture, Lol Crawley’s work distinctly captures space, shape, and substance brilliantly and not unlike brutalism itself—as always.
Best Production Design
Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: The Brutalist
Should Have Been Here: Saturday Night
Again, the love for Wicked can see it recognised here—though The Brutalist’s architecture deserves more love.
Best Sound
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: Joker: Folie à Deux
The last two categories where Denis Villeneuve’s master work could be recognised. Though, do not discount the power of A Complete Unknown that many Academy members (particularly the older folks) adore. If there is a desire to recognise the film elsewhere from Best Actor, it could be here.
Best Music (Original Song)
Will Win: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
Could Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Should Win: “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
Should Have Been Here: “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
Hear me out. “El Mal” has been the frontrunner all season, though the dying love for Emilia Pérez might cause it some hurt. But, if there is love for Diane Warren (after 16 nominations with no wins!) and Tyler Perry, do not discount a win for Diane Warren after decades of waiting.
Best Music (Original Score)
Will Win: The Brutalist
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: The Brutalist
Should Have Been Here: Challengers
The Brutalist’s soundtrack is spellbinding. But let’s be real, if Challengers was nominated, this would not be a debate at all.
Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Wander to Wonder
Could Win: In the Shadow of the Cypress
Should Win: Magic Candies
Should Have Been Here: A Crab in the Pool
Fresh off its Annie win, it’s unlikely that Wander to Wonder will not walk away tomorrow with a win. Its unique artistry, reflections and meta-commentary on the media industry, addiction, and survival could move a filmmaker crowd.
Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Could Win: Anuja
Should Win: Anuja
Should Have Been Here: Crust
If there is a film that speaks to America today and the world-at-large, it would be The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. However, considering Anuja’s star-studded producers (the likes of Mindy Kaling and Priyanka Chopra Jonas) and the optimistic narratives the Academy tends to recognise in this category, Anuja could surprise.
Best Documentary Short Film
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Could Win: Incident
Should Win: Incident
Should Have Been Here: Until He’s Back
I Am Ready, Warren is a moving and nuanced-enough work that could propel it to an Oscar win. However, Bill Morrison’s decades of outstanding work and Incident’s pertinent form and relevant subject matter could see it with a (very well-deserved) win.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Will Win: No Other Land
Could Win: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Should Win: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Should Have Been Here: Daughters or Will & Harper
No Other Land represents Hollywood’s performative care towards Palestine, so there’s no better place to recognise (and also ignore—in the film’s limited reach) the issue with this “win”. Will & Harper deserved to be here for its groundbreaking sincerity and important message.
Best International Feature Film
Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Could Win: Emilia Pérez (France)
Should Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Should Have Been Here: How to Make Millions before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
Hear me out: With I’m Still Here’s breakthrough nominations across several categories, the increased viewership of the film could encourage Academy members (particularly international ones) to give it the win, especially considering its psychological depth, as well as its political and historical relevance with today.
Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Could Win: Flow
Should Win: Flow
Should Have Been Here: Chicken for Linda
The Wild Robot has had this locked down for months, but its last act pales in comparison to Flow’s spiritualism, effectiveness, and craft.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Nickel Boys
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Hit Man
Conclave could easily win here, but if there’s any love for Nickel Boys, the film would be recognised here: its inventive approach and montages speaks to the writer-director’s genius. Go read the screenplay’s last three pages… The use of archival footage, across past and present, and intertwining of the personal and societal—it is a marvel.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: The Substance
Should Win: Anora
Should Have Been Here: All We Imagine as Light
Sean Baker could finally be recognised through this category, though the cult-like love for The Substance might see the writer-director recognised with an award not unlike Cannes.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Could Win: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Should Win: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Should Have Been Here: Harris Dickinson (Babygirl) or Joe Alwyn (The Brutalist) or Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
Kieran Culkin has had this locked in for months, and he deserves it. But, if we are talking about category fraud and who truly was the best and supporting, it has to be Jeremy Strong, whose turn as complex and controversial Roy Cohn lent the film an unmatched gravitas.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Could Win: Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Should Win: Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Should Have Been Here: Toni Collette (Juror No. 2) / Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
Similarly, category fraud! Isabella Rossellini truly deserves this award, considering her body of work and also her character’s stealing of the spotlight in the mere minutes she appears in. Nonetheless, a Zoe Saldaña win is still a celebration of Saldaña’s extraordinary body of work too.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Should Win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Should Have Been Here: Daniel Craig (Queer)
Adrien Brody’s talent is unmatched, with all that the screenplay has allowed him to explore. Timothée’s win at the Screen Actor Guild Awards might pose a threat, but the momentum might not be in his favour. When, however, will it be Colman Domingo’s time?
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Could Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Should Win: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Should Have Been Here: June Squibb (Thelma)
Hear me out: With the increased viewership for I’m Still Here, the snub for Fernanda Montenegro decades ago (to Gwyneth Paltrow?!), and Fernanda Torres’s truly soul-wrenching work in the film, the debate over Demi Moore or Mikey Madison might be a surprising one. Having missed all the precursor awards, and Demi Moore’s speeches at every of those awards feeling like a career-defining win, there might just be more love (especially from the international membership) for Fernanda Torres. Don’t count her out, just yet. She deserves it.
Best Directing
Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
Could Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Should Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Should Have Been Here: Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) or Luca Guadagnino (Challengers and/or Queer)
The love for Sean Baker could see him walk away with awards for both writing and directing. Though if we are awarding for the nominated work instead of the directors’ larger filmography, Brady Corbet’s achievements and vision in The Brutalist is one of a kind, and one that Megalopolis director Francis Ford Coppola might just marvel at.
Best Picture
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Anora
Should Win: Nickel Boys or The Brutalist
Should Have Been Here: Challengers
The biggest uncertainty walking into tomorrow!
Everyone has a different justification: The Brutalist’s win at the Golden Globes, Anora’s wins at the British Academy Awards, Conclave’s wins at the Screen Actor Guild Awards, Wicked’s large fanbase, and Emilia Pérez’s incessant and uninspiring presence in this award season.
With polarising views on the other frontrunners, Conclave’s safe spot as everyone’s number 2 or 3 might just propel it to a win. Not unlike a decade ago where Spotlight sprung to the win winning only Best Screenplay apart from Best Picture, Conclave (coincidentally about the same church) might be the film that best speaks to our times and our need for faith amidst the evil of certainty and arrogance disguised as “knowledge”. However, if we really are awarding for the Best Picture, the groundbreaking works that are Nickel Boys and The Brutalist should win. But there really is no cause for upset if a conclave of gossiping cardinals walk up that stage tomorrow—the fandoms on TikTok and X would rejoice.
Editors’ note: Disney+ will be streaming the 97th Oscars live at 7:30 a.m. (Singapore Time) tomorrow, 3 March.